St. Louis City Hall, seen here on April 13, 2024.
No St. Louis mayor in the past 75 years — there were 11 of them — has seen the city’s population grow during his or her time in office. And no mayor during that time has succeeded in reducing the crime rate below national averages, despite his or her best efforts.
But some mayors have done better than others — and that might offer some discussion points about what matters and what doesn’t.
The biggest population collapse, of course, came during the administrations of Joseph Darst, Raymond Tucker and AJ Cervantes, from 1949 until 1969 — a drop of about 27% (more than 230,000 people) in 20 years. Their administrations coincided with the postwar development of the interstate highway system and rapid suburbanization.
Consistent with that trend, the biggest population declines after Cervantes came under pro-business mayors who worked hard to promote development in downtown St. Louis and along the central corridor, along Highway 40 (I-64):
• Vince “Ready, Fire, Aim” Schoemehl (1981-1993) saw the most folks leave during his three terms, a nearly 15% decline.
• Francis Slay, who had four terms (2001-2017), presided over a 12% population decline.
• John Poelker saw a nearly 10% drop during his single term (1973-1977). (Poelker was mayor when I first came to St. Louis, when the city’s population still topped half a million.)
Not only do mayors get blamed for population loss, they also get hammered for failing to curb crime. But drawing a correlation between crime and who’s sitting in Room 200 of City Hall is a fool’s errand. For about 150 years, the state was in charge of the police department. St. Louis gained its reputation for violence and high homicide rates during that era. After the city regained control in 2013, the homicide rate ticked higher. It only started to drop dramatically in 2023, reflecting national trends.
In the past half-century, only two mayors have seen the city’s homicide rate drop during their tenure: Freeman Bosley Jr. and the current incumbent, Tishaura O. Jones.
The bottom line here: The notion that a new mayor will change the direction of St. Louis is foolish — unless that mayor is transparent and honest about the challenges the city faces. That mayor needs to be clear that she will not be able to arrest population decline or a high crime rate, not if she pursues the same old strategies. Subsidizing development in the central business district, especially if it comes at the expense of neighborhoods, will not change the city’s trajectory.
Roland Klose 